Companies have increasingly advocated social media technologies to transform businesses and improve organizational performance. This study scrutinizes the predictive relationships between social media and firm equity value, the relative effects of social media metrics compared with conventional online behavioral metrics, and the dynamics of these relationships. The results derived from vector autoregressive models suggest that social media-based metrics (Web blogs and consumer ratings) are significant leading indicators of firm equity value. Interestingly, conventional online behavioral metrics (Google searches and Web traffic) are found to have a significant yet substantially weaker predictive relationship with firm equity value than social media metrics. We also find that social media has a faster predictive value, i.e., shorter "wear-in" time, than conventional online media. These findings are robust to a consistent set of volume-based measures (total blog posts, rating volume, total page views, and search intensity). Collectively, this study proffers new insights for senior executives with respect to firm equity valuations and the transformative power of social media.
Consumer buzz in the form of user-generated reviews, recommendations, and blogs signals that consumer attitude and advocacy can influence firm value. Web traffic also affects brand awareness and customer acquisition, and is a predictor of the performance of a firm's stock in the market. The information systems and accounting literature have treated buzz and traffic separately in studying their relationships with firm performance. We consider the interactions between buzz and traffic as well as competitive effects that have been overlooked heretofore. To study the relationship between user-initiated Web activities and firm performance, we collected a unique data set with metrics for consumer buzz, Web traffic, and firm value. We employed a vector autoregression with exogenous variables model that captures the evolution and interdependence between the time series of dependent variables. This model enables us to examine a series of questions that have been raised but not fully explored to date, such as dynamic effects, interaction effects, and market competition effects. Our results support the dynamic relationships of buzz and traffic with firm value as well as the related mediation effects of buzz and traffic. They also reveal significant market competition effects, including effects of both a firm's own and its rivals' buzz and traffic. The findings also provide insights for e-commerce managers regarding Web site design, customer relation management, and how to best respond to competitors' strategic moves.
The article analyzes the optimal way for software vendors to license software, in the context of social aspects of information systems. The relative merits of perpetual licensing or subscription models are discussed, and issues such as software upgrade compatibility, uncertainty regarding quality, network effects and price forecasting are addressed. Evidence is presented that software vendors should use a hybrid of perpetual licensing and subscription models in order to optimize both their own profits and the satisfaction of their customers.
The continuous growth of e-commerce makes it critical for firms to understand consumers' search behavior so that e-commerce Web sites and the underlying information systems can be designed to better cater to consumers' needs. This paper extends the classic search model to analyze online consumer search behavior. The analytical results suggest how consumers' search depth is influenced by a variety of factors such as search cost, individual consumer difference, and product characteristics. Evidence is provided using clickstream data of online searches and purchases of music CDs, computer hardware, and airline tickets during the period from July 2002 to December 2002 collected by an Internet marketing company, ComScore Inc. Compared with the search depth reported in previous works, this study finds that consumers are searching more intensely before purchasing online. This reflects the evolution of Internet users and the growth of online retail business.
Although the Web has grown to several billion pages over the past few years, just a few of the Web sites get most of the visits. Such sites, called portals, attract visitors and advertisers and provide a lot of valuable content at no charge to the visitors. The portals attract a disproportionate amount of the Internet advertising dollars and have the ability to influence the success of new electronic commerce ventures. Using monthly audience data, we examine relative market shares of Web sites in search engines, travel, financial, news, and other categories. We find clear evidence of increasing disparity in page views, with the top Web sites getting an increasing share of the market. Using economic modeling, we show that this disparity is a result of a development externality that exists in this industry: the sites that have more viewers get more revenues; this in turn allows them to develop more content and attract an even greater number of viewers.
A key decision by the manager of an advertisement-supported Web site is the balance between content and advertising. Content is costly but attracts viewers, whereas advertisement generates revenues but repels viewers. The period-by-period balancing decision is further complicated by the growth and diffusion nature of Web site viewership. This decision problem is modeled as a control problem that captures the essence of the business model of such Web sites. Using this model we show that it may be optimal for the Web site to initially have negative cash flows from having fewer advertisements and more content. This is more than compensated for by future profits from the Web site. We use the solution to the control problem to also develop a forward-looking measure of Web traffic called the 'discounted total traffic.' We empirically examine this new measure and find that it better predicts market capitalization than backward-looking measures like page views.